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First CSU forecast for 2021 hurricane activity released

Above-average season expected
Published: Apr. 8, 2021 at 6:05 PM CDT
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COLORADO (KWQC) - On April 8, 2021 Colorado State University released its first forecast on Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2021. Overall, CSU anticipates the next Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity.

For an average season, there are 12 tropical storms.
For an average season, there are 12 tropical storms.(KWQC)

For an average season, there are 12 tropical storms with 6 of those becoming hurricanes and 3 becoming major hurricanes. These average numbers are based on 1981 to 2010 data.

THE PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR HURRICANE (CATEGORY 3-5) LANDFALL

  • Entire continental United States coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%)
  • United States East Coast including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for last century is 31%)
  • Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%)
The 2021 hurricane names include Ana and Elsa.
The 2021 hurricane names include Ana and Elsa.(KWQC)

WHAT’S NEW

Until 2020, after using the 21 names from the year’s Atlantic Basin storm names, the Greek alphabet was used (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, etc.). This method was used twice. The first time was in 2005 when six names were used. Last year in 2020 was the second time the Greek alphabet was used, and it was used nine times.

After the 2020 hurricane season the names Dorian, Laura, Eta, and Iota have been retired. Starting in 2021, the Greek alphabet will never be used again.

What will be used instead of the Greek Alphabet

• Adria • Braylen • Caridad • Deshawn • Emery • Foster • Gemma • Heath • Isla • Jacobus

• Kenzie • Lucio • Makayla • Nolan • Orlanda • Pax • Ronin • Sophie • Tayshaun • Viviana • Will

WHAT ELSE TO LOOK FORWARD TO

  1. Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 9-15, 2021)
  2. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration gives first Atlantic hurricane season outlook Mid-May
  3. National Hurricane Center begins issuing Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15
  4. Hurricane season starts June 1

In early June of last year remnants of Tropical Storm Cristobal brought showers and storms to the Quad Cities area.

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