New tornado probability map shows shift in tornado alley patterns
The Quad Cities’ long term tornado odds are trending up here’s what the data actually shows.
QUAD CITIES, Iowa/Ill. (KWQC) - The National Centers for Environmental Information and the Storm Prediction Center have released a new map showing the probability of a tornado within a 25-mile radius using data from 1955 to 2024.
The new data shows a 70%-80% annual probability for a tornado in the local area and south into Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama.
When you break down the data to the 30 year average (1994 to 2024), the updated figures show an 80%-90% probability of a tornado within 25 miles for eastern Iowa and western Illinois.
The new data indicates a 90%-100% percent probability in southern Illinois and areas to the south.
This data reflects the shift in tornado alley that meteorologists and climatologists have been tracking in recent years.
As always, the KWQC First Alert Weather team will keep you updated throughout the severe weather season. Get the latest forecast, here.
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